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ANALYST RESEARCH REPORTS SHOW CABO UNDERVALUED
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Analyst Research Reports Show Cabo Undervalued
On February 29^th 2012 Haywood Securities published their report
“[2]Cabo is Contracted to Drill for Profit” authored by Megan MacNeill
and Geoff Scott.
On the same day Beacon Securities Limited published
their report by Michael Mills, “Profitable Q2 and Improving Balance
Sheet”, which can be accessed for free through the [3]Beacon Securities
web page.
The reports provide a comprehensive evaluation of Cabo
Drilling and should be read along with this blog to appreciate the
context for the 12 month target price of $0.40 per share.
Links:
1.
http://us4.campaign-archive1.com/?u=ea1ed614a184dec77e57a3c0b&id=bf667ca93f&e=f658dfadc6
2.
http://clientcentre.haywood.com/uploadfiles/secured_reports/CBEFeb292012.pdf
3.
http://beaconsecurities.ca/research
Key Points
The key points justifying the share price forecasted in the research
reports are:
* Demand for drilling services industry wide is predicted to carry on
through 2013
* Growth in the European and Latin American markets serviced by Cabo
Drilling
* Demand for high-margin unconventional drilling services
* Number of drill rigs
* Good balance of drill rig types
* Cabo Drilling’s safety record and standards
* Company has reduced its debt levels
* Cabo Drilling had better than expected results in the 1^st & 2^nd
quarter s
* The company is undervalued relative to market peers
Report Summary
The reports provide the following rational for their pricing forecast:
* The pent-up demand for mineral exploration, created by the
recession years, is already buoying demand for drilling, but the
other thing to realize is that the new drilling contracts are also
delivering better margins.
So Cabo is seeing the percentage
utilization of the corporate drill fleet rising and at the same
time is seeing better margins, which is delivering an improved
bottom line.
* With a foothold in Albania, which has seen the training of local
workers, the Company is also positioned for growth in the markets
surrounding Albania.
This bodes well for Cabo as these markets are
safe to operate in and are currently experiencing an expansion.
The jurisdictions of Panama and Columbia also show good growth and
Cabo is well positioned there.
On January 3^rd and 10^th the
Company’s largest client in the Latin America market place achieved
two significant milestones in their development of the Cobre Panama
copper project in Panama and as a result Cabo anticipates drilling
through to October 2012 with 8 drills.
In Columbia 2 drills have
been working full-time and a 3^rd, new drill, is expected to begin
work as this article is posted.
* Unconventional drilling services see increasing demand as
geologists are targeting deeper anomalies and exploring in ever
more challenging settings.
This type of drilling requires
specialized equipment and highly trained workers, affording the
Company higher margins and contributing to the bottom line.
* The company’s 100+ drill rigs are specifically tailored to meet a
variety of drilling needs, affording the company the ability to
take advantage of market demands in both conventional and
nonconventional services.
* Safety is a competitive advantage for Cabo.
+ The Company has earned safety awards from organizations in
Ontario and from the Mine Safety and Health Administration
(MSHA) organization.
In addition, in 2009 the Company
received the Award of Excellence for Safety from Workplace
Safety North in Ontario.
This highly prestigious award
recognizes the lowest frequency of accidents amongst mineral
drilling companies and highlights Cabo’s emphasis on safety.
+ In the final analysis a good safety record will better enable
the Company to recruit skilled workers, reduce expensive
downtime and grant a competitive advantage in securing
drilling contracts.
* Through the application of good administrative practices Cabo
Drilling has reduced debt, bringing it into line with industry
norms which again will positively impact the bottom line going
forward.
* Results for the first two quarters of the new fiscal year have been
better than expected.
This speaks to the implementation of tight
spending controls in addition to management’s ability to secure
drill contracts and improve the margins on their contracts.
This
increased the analysts’ confidence in the Company and contributed
significantly to their forecasted share price.
$0.40 per share
MacNeill and Scott from Haywood Securities write:
“Our $0.40 per share target price for Cabo is based on a 2013
EV/EBITDA multiple approach.
We believe Cabo, with a current 2012
EV/EBITDA multiple of 1.8x, is undervalued relative to its peers who
trade at an average of 5.7x 2012 EV/EBITDA.
Our one-year $0.40 per
share price target is derived using a 4.0x 2013 EV/EBITDA multiple
totaling $0.40 per share.
On a cash flow basis, our target implies
in a 2013 P/CFPS ratio of 4.0x, conservatively below its 2013 peer
group average of 6.0x.
The market discount does not reflect organic
growth opportunities and expanding large-scale drilling programs for
both senior and intermediate mining companies.
To support our
multiple analysis we have also included a DCF analysis, which yields
a one-year target of $0.42 per share using a 20% discount rate and
4.0x terminal EBITDA multiple.”
My Take:
These independent research reports confirm that the hard work and good
management practices employed by Cabo during the economic downturn have
paid off.
I believe the significant undervaluation of the Company
makes it particularly attractive to new investors and that our current
investors will be rewarded for their patience.
We would like to thank MacNeill, Scott and Mills for the thorough
research they have put into their reports and their efforts to inform
current and prospective shareholders about the drilling services
industry and Cabo Drilling Corp.
To access the reports please click on the following hyperlinks:
Haywood Securities:
[4]http://clientcentre.haywood.com/uploadfiles/secured_reports/CBEFeb29
2012.pdf
Beacon Securities: http://beaconsecurities.ca/research*
* You must register for a free account, after which you may search the
Research menu for Cabo Drilling
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Links:
4.
http://clientcentre.haywood.com/uploadfiles/secured_reports/CBEFeb292012.pdf
6.
http://www.cabo.ca/Blog.aspx
7.
http://us4.forward-to-friend1.com/forward?u=ea1ed614a184dec77e57a3c0b&id=bf667ca93f&e=f658dfadc6
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